https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/new-research-vindicates-1972-mit-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon
MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule.
A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule.
by Nafeez Ahmed
July 14, 2021, 6:00am
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https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/18KtXd9K9hCGD7bO7N52B24-8Ro6MmmcP?usp=sharing
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https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2763500/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf
Previous studies that attempted to do this found that the model’s worst-case scenarios accurately reflected real-world developments. However, the last study of this nature was completed in 2014.
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https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html
Update to limits to growth
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https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2021/yale-publication.pdf
Update to limits to growth
Comparing the World3 model with empirical data
By Gaya Herrington
•••• ••• ••••
5 CONCLUSION
Empirical world data was compared against scenarios from the last LtG book, created by the World3 model. The data comparison, which used the latest World3 version, included four scenarios: BAU, BAU2, CT, and SW. Empirical data showed a relatively close fit for most of the variables. This was true to some extent for all scenarios, because in several cases the scenarios do not significantly diverge until 2020. When scenarios had started to diverge, the ones that aligned closest with empirical data most often were BAU2 and CT. This result is different to previous comparisons that used the earlier World3 version, and which indicated BAU as the most closely followed scenario. The scenario that depicts the smallest declines in economic output, SW, is also the one that aligned least closely with observed data. Furthermore, the two closest aligning scenarios BAU2 and CT, respectively, predict a collapse pattern and moderate decline in output. At this point therefore, the data most aligns with the CT and BAU2 scenarios
which indicate a slowdown and eventual halt in growth within the next decade or so, but World3 leaves open whether the subsequent decline will
HERRINGTON 11
constitute a collapse. World3 also indicates the possibility, for now, of limiting declines to less than in the CT. Although SW tracks least closely, a deliberate trajectory change brought about by society turning toward another goal than growth is still possible. The LtG work implies that this window of opportunity is closing fast.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was based on my Master of Liberal Arts thesis in Sustainability at Harvard University Extension School, graduation March 2020 (Branderhorst 2020). I am grateful to Graham Turner for sharing his previous work with me and giving me his support. It was a pleasure and honor to discuss my research with him. I would like to thank Esther G. Naikaland Giovanni Ruta from the World Bank for providing me with the underlying data on natural capital calculations. I am also very appreciative of John Sterman for meeting with me at short notice in January 2019 while he was on sabbatical. That talk in his MIT office provided me with exactly the right insights to nudge my research in the right direction.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The author declares no conflict of interest.
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Donella H. Meadows, Edited by Diana Wright, Thinking in systems [ ]
If a factory is turn down but the rationality which produced it is
left standing, then that rationality will simply produce another
factory. If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic
patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact,
the those patterns will repeat themselves.... There's so much talk
about system. And so little understanding.
――ROBERT PRISIG, zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
(Thinking in systems : a primer, Donella H. Meadows, Edited by Diana Wright, sustainability institute, 2008, QA 402 .M425 2008, )
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[model]
[reality]
[models]
[a simplified representation of reality]
[no models is completely true.]
[create a model that is useful for some specific purpose, for answering a specific set of interrelated questions.]
Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, Limits to growth, 2004
15. Donella Meadows
pp.130-131
The Purpose and Structure of World3
... Seldon, and his emperor.
"I am given to understand you believe it possible
to predict the future."
Seldon suddenly felt weary. It seemed as though
this misinterpretation of his theory was constantly
going to occur. Perhaps he should not have presented
his paper.
He said, "Not quite, actually. What I have done is
much more limited than that.... What I have done ...
is to show that ... it is possible to choose a starting
point and to make appropriate assumptions that will
suppress the chaos. That will make it possible to predict
the future, not in full detail, of course, but in broad
sweeps; not with certainty ..."
The Emperor, who had listened carefully said, "But
doesn't that mean that you have shown how to predict
the future?" 1
In the remainder of this book we will often use World3 to generate scenarios that help us talk about the "broad sweeps" of the future. To minimize confusion about our goals, we start with several definitions and cautionary notes about models.
A model is a simplified representation of reality. If it were a perfect replica, it would not be useful. For example, a road map would be of no use to drivers if it contained every feature of the landscape it represents--it focuses on roads and omits, for example, most features of buildings and plants along the way. A small physical airplane model can be useful for exploring the dynamics of a particular airfoil in a wind tunnel, but it gives no information about the comfort of passengers in the eventual operational plane. A painting is a graphic model that may convey a mood or the physical placement of features on a landscape. But it does not answer any questions about the cost or the insulation of the buildings it portrays. To deal with those issues a different graphic model would be required--an architect's construction blue print. Because models are always simplifications, they are never perfectly valid; no models is completely true.
Instead the goal is to create a model that is useful for some specific purpose, for answering a specific set of interrelated questions. Then one must keep in mind the limitations of the model and be aware of all the questions it does not answer. We have focused our efforts on making World3 useful--for a carefully bounded set of questions about long-term physical growth on the planet. Unfortunately, that means World3 will not provide useful answers to most of the questions that concern you.
Models take many forms--common forms are mental, verbal, graphical, mathematical, or physical. For example, many words in this book are verbal models. GROWTH, POPULATION, FOREST, and WATER are just symbols, simple verbal representations that stand for very complex realities. Every graph, chart, map, and photograph is a graphical model. Its relationships are expressed through the appearance and location of objects on the paper. World3 is a mathematical model. The relationships it contains are represented through a set of mathematical model. The relationships it contains are represented through a set of mathematical equations. We have not used physical models in our effort to understand growth and limits, though they are useful for many other purposes, such as in designing communities or industrial products.
Mental models are the abstractions carried in minds. They are not directly accessible by others; they are informal. Formal models exist in a form that can be directly viewed, and sometimes manipulated, by others. The two should ideally interact. Using formal models, we can learn more about reality and about others' mental models. And that enriches our own mental models. As we learn, we are able to create more useful formal models. That process of iteration has engaged us for more than 30 years. And this book is one result.
To create this book, we have assembled words, data, graphs, and computer scenarios. The book is a model of what is in our minds, and creating it has altered what we know. This text is our best attempt to symbolize our current thoughts and understanding about physical growth on this planet over the coming century. But this book is only a model of those thoughts, which are themselves, like every person's thoughts, only a models of the "real world."
1 Isaac Asimov, Prelude to Foundation (New York: Doubleday, 1988), 10.
(Meadows, Donella H., copyright © 2004)
(Limits to growth : the 30-year update / Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, (hardcover : alk. paper), (pbk. : alk. paper), 1. economic development--environmental aspects, 2. population--economic aspects, 3. pollution--economic aspects, 4. sustainable development, pp.130-131 )
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Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, Limits to growth, 2004
pp.43-44
When we, system dynamicists, see a pattern persist in many parts of a system over long periods, we assume that it has causes embedded in the feedback loop structure of the system. Running the same system harder or faster will not change the pattern as long as the structure is not revised. Growth as usual has widened the gap between the rich and the poor. Continuing growth as usual will never close the gap. Only changing the structure of the system--the chains of causes and effect--will do that.
What is the structure that keeps widening the gap between the rich and the poor even in the presence of enormous economic growth? We see two generic structures at work. The first has to do with social arrangement--some common in many cultures, some unique to particular cultures--that SYSTEMICALLY REWARD THE PRIVILEDGED WITH THE POWER AND RESOURCES TO ACQUIRE EVEN MORE PRIVILEGE. Examples range from over to cover ethnic discrimination to tax loopholes for the wealthy; from inferior nutrition for the children of the poor to premium schooling for the children of the wealthy; from the use of money to gain political access, even in supposed democracies, to the simple fact that interest payments systematically flow from those who have less money than they need to those who have more than they need.
In systems terms these structures are called "success to the successful" feedback loops. 17 They are positive loops that reward the successful with the means to succeed. They tend to be endemic in any society that does not consciously implement counterbalancing structures to level the playing field. (Example of counterbalancing structures include anti-discrimination laws, tax rates that increase as a person grows richer, universal education and health care standards, "safety nets" to support those who falls upon hard times, taxes on wealth, and democratic processes that separate politics from the influence of money).
(Meadows, Donella H., copyright © 2004)
(Limits to growth : the 30-year update / Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, (hardcover : alk. paper), (pbk. : alk. paper), 1. economic development--environmental aspects, 2. population--economic aspects, 3. pollution--economic aspects, 4. sustainable development, pp.43-44 )
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([ experience showed that
the process doesn’t converge; that no matter
how many iterations are done the overloads
move from one resource type to another. ])
([ implicit and unmentioned is growth; experience
showed that the process doesn’t converge; that
no matter how many iterations are done; because
of expansion, or, greater demand on the current
capacity, the overloads move from one resource
type to another; ... ])
([ growth can be a virtue; however, no virtues is a
virtue by itself; growth must be determined,
evaluated and examined within the environment,
not in isolation. ])
Standing on the shoulders of Giants
Production concepts versus production applications
The Hitachi Tool Engineering Example
By Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt
... [...] ...
p.11
... As a result, the decision of when
to release the material determines where and how
big the queues will be, which in turn determines
how much time it will take to complete the order,
which determines when to release the material.
We were facing a chicken and egg problem. In the
seventies [1970s] it was suggested to handle
that problem by reiterating the procedure (closed
loop MRP) – to run the computer system, to check
the resulting planned overloads on the various
resources (the size of the queues), to adjust
the due dates to eliminate the overloads, and
to repeat this process until all meaningful
overloads were eliminated. This suggestion did
not last long since experience showed that
the process doesn’t converge; that no matter
how many iterations are done the overloads just
move from one resource type to another.
... [...] ...
filename: Standing-on-the-Shoulders-of-Giants.pdf
www.goldrattconsulting.com
info@goldrattconsulting.com
copyright © Eliyahu M. Goldratt 2006
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2014
Population boom, a film by Werner Boote (director of Plastic planet)
media: Digital Video Disc (DVD)
subject: population, demography, access to resource
there is no population problem; we do not have too many people; there is a congestion problem in cities and in ..., but that is not a population problem;
access to family planning
Benjamin Fulford:
the situation is that, we in the 20th century, humanity has wiped out 30 per cent of all species of life on the planet, and there is 1.1 billion (1,000,000,000) people who are hungry, and the Western elite that has been running the planet, until recently, thought that the only way to save the planet was to get rid of 5 billion people, so that humanity could lived in balance with nature, but I think they were just incompetent; in fact that, the real reason, [for] the disaster in the 20th century, has been GREED, especially on the part of, for me the main villians: banks, the petroleum companies, and the chemical pharmaceutical industry,
and who do you think is the brain behind all of this?
Benjamin Fulford:
aam, it's a family group, and they are the aristocratic and banking family, of Europe and North America, ..., they believe in eugenics [???][or they did at one time][or they still do?], ..., ..., ..., ..., [the name or the label has changed], but the agenda is the same, ..., but anyway I want to say one thing to conclude is that, the laws of evolution will mean that people who have the most kids will control the future of the planet, not the people who are reducing their population ([ so the Catholic church is correct and RIGHT about birth control and contraception in this regard ]), and unless Europeans start having kids, again, they'll become an endangered species [??], ...
It is the system under which we lived that determine the kind of consumption and production.
The Pentagon is the biggest international purchaser oil
the global population campaign has worked so well because the myth of over population has been such a convenient excuse
the modern system of population statistic ...
to determine how many school, hospital, and jobs would be needed in the future
demographer
Sudan alone could feed a billion people.
There's so much arable land.
the way rich people are consuming, the way they exploit the resources, ...
first the rich people should learn to consume less, ...
you should say, family planning for cars, when you say, family planning for people
they are promoting a lifestyle where having a car for each family member is good,
I don't want to go under the World Bank umbrella
they are saying you have to reduce population, you have to follow modern agriculture, you have to use chemical, build infrastructure rather have good health care, you have to privatize, you have to liberalize, you have to import, rather than produce in your own country, and I think World Bank should changed its name from World Bank to Rich countries's bank, ...
responsible for pollution, exploitation of natural resources,
land grabbing,
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