..., and then multiply by three (x3, *3)
◇p.103
Jay Forrester used to tell us, when we were modeling a construction or processing delay, to ask everyone in the system how long they thought the delay was, make our best guess, and then multiply by three. (That correction factor also works perfectly, I have found, for estimating how long it will take to write a book!)
(Thinking in systems : a primer, Donella H. Meadows, Edited by Diana Wright, sustainability institute, 2008, QA 402 .M425 2008, ◇p.103 )
([ for construction or processing delay ])
source:
published public information on cost projection of program
But even the costs of that comparatively modest goal ballooned to the point where the program is estimated to run about $17.6 billion, nearly three times the original projections.
---------------------------
Comparatively modest
goal ballooned
---------------------------
The program is estimated
to run about $17.6
billion, nearly three
times the original
projections.
===========================
([ program cost estimation ])
satellite
Sbirs GEO-1 Launches At Last
Space-Based Infrared System (SBIrS)
geosynchronous
Col. Roger Teague, commander of the Infrared Space Systems Directorate at Air Force Space and Missile Defense in Los Angeles.
“The SBIRS system will remain the golden standard for missile warning. It will be the backbone of the important mission we do to provide that early warning for hostile missiles and threats for our nation and allies,” Teague said.
With it, "we can see much more, much earlier, much sooner,” he said.
the first of four SBIRS geostationary satellites -- which orbit the planet in a fixed spot relative to Earth -- will add to the two highly elliptical satellites already in place.
SBIRS GEO-1 will provide persistent surveillance of just one hotspot, warzone or hostile nation -- which one exactly is classified
After its launch, the satellite will take nine days to achieve its orbit. It could take another six months before it starts providing intelligence data, however. The satellite will then undergo a certification process that will take roughly 17 months, whereupon it should receive approval to participate in integrated warning assessments and operations, providing 24/7 persistent surveillance with its unblinking, sleepless infrared sensors.
The fourth and final SBIRS satellite is scheduled for launch in 2016, Teague said.
Teague acknowledged that the launch of SBIRS GEO-1 is the beginning of the end of a long road fraught with technical and cost challenges for the U.S. Air Force and its contractors, which include Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Aerospace Corp.
Defense officials conceived of SBIRS in 1995 as a means to update the Defense Support Program satellites, first launched in 1970. While the Strategic Defense Initiative envisioned refashioning such satellites with space-based defense weapons to blast incoming missiles from the sky, SBIRS took a more conservative approach of fitting more advanced sensors to the new satellites.
But even the costs of that comparatively modest goal ballooned to the point where the program is estimated to run about $17.6 billion, nearly three times the original projections.
Despite the massive cost overruns, the basic specifications for the two infrared sensor packages onboard GEO-1 remained stable, said Jeff Smith, SBIRS program manager at Lockheed Martin, which built the satellite.
A scanning sensor will conduct sweeps for information on missile launches, while a staring sensor will analyze a fixed location, Smith explained.
The scanning sensor likely would pick up threat information first due to its wider range but the staring sensor could provide more detailed information on a threat
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/05/05/air-force-launch-star-wars-style-missile-defense/
reuters 2011/05/07 usa-military-satellite
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/launches+billion+missile+defence+satellite/4746975/story.html
http://www.itwire.com/science-news/space/46993-us-missile-defense-geo-1-launched-into-space
By William Atkins
Monday, 09 May 2011 00:22
____________________________________
p.40
Air Force innovation
estimates of the outcome of development projects
Cost increases on the order of 20 to 30 percent and extension of development time by 1/3 to 1/2 are not the exception, but the rule
due to technological uncertainty and advances.128
source:
John Schutte, ‘Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War’, 2015, http://www.au.af.mil/au/aupress/digital/pdf/paper/dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf
dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf
Schutte, John M., 1976
Casting net assessment : Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war / John M. Schutte, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF.
1. Marshall, Andrew W., 1921─ 2. United States. department of defense. director of net assessment ── biography. 3. united states. department of defense ── officials and employees ── biography. 4. rand corporation ── biography. 5. united states ── forecasting. 6. military planning ── united states ── history ── 20th century. 7. military planning ── united states ── history ── 21st century. 8. united states ── military policy. 9. strategy. 10. cold war.
title: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war.
UA23.6.S43 2014
355.0092 -- dc23
____________________________________
◇p.103
Jay Forrester used to tell us, when we were modeling a construction or processing delay, to ask everyone in the system how long they thought the delay was, make our best guess, and then multiply by three. (That correction factor also works perfectly, I have found, for estimating how long it will take to write a book!)
(Thinking in systems : a primer, Donella H. Meadows, Edited by Diana Wright, sustainability institute, 2008, QA 402 .M425 2008, ◇p.103 )
([ for construction or processing delay ])
source:
published public information on cost projection of program
But even the costs of that comparatively modest goal ballooned to the point where the program is estimated to run about $17.6 billion, nearly three times the original projections.
---------------------------
Comparatively modest
goal ballooned
---------------------------
The program is estimated
to run about $17.6
billion, nearly three
times the original
projections.
===========================
([ program cost estimation ])
satellite
Sbirs GEO-1 Launches At Last
Space-Based Infrared System (SBIrS)
geosynchronous
Col. Roger Teague, commander of the Infrared Space Systems Directorate at Air Force Space and Missile Defense in Los Angeles.
“The SBIRS system will remain the golden standard for missile warning. It will be the backbone of the important mission we do to provide that early warning for hostile missiles and threats for our nation and allies,” Teague said.
With it, "we can see much more, much earlier, much sooner,” he said.
the first of four SBIRS geostationary satellites -- which orbit the planet in a fixed spot relative to Earth -- will add to the two highly elliptical satellites already in place.
SBIRS GEO-1 will provide persistent surveillance of just one hotspot, warzone or hostile nation -- which one exactly is classified
After its launch, the satellite will take nine days to achieve its orbit. It could take another six months before it starts providing intelligence data, however. The satellite will then undergo a certification process that will take roughly 17 months, whereupon it should receive approval to participate in integrated warning assessments and operations, providing 24/7 persistent surveillance with its unblinking, sleepless infrared sensors.
The fourth and final SBIRS satellite is scheduled for launch in 2016, Teague said.
Teague acknowledged that the launch of SBIRS GEO-1 is the beginning of the end of a long road fraught with technical and cost challenges for the U.S. Air Force and its contractors, which include Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Aerospace Corp.
Defense officials conceived of SBIRS in 1995 as a means to update the Defense Support Program satellites, first launched in 1970. While the Strategic Defense Initiative envisioned refashioning such satellites with space-based defense weapons to blast incoming missiles from the sky, SBIRS took a more conservative approach of fitting more advanced sensors to the new satellites.
But even the costs of that comparatively modest goal ballooned to the point where the program is estimated to run about $17.6 billion, nearly three times the original projections.
Despite the massive cost overruns, the basic specifications for the two infrared sensor packages onboard GEO-1 remained stable, said Jeff Smith, SBIRS program manager at Lockheed Martin, which built the satellite.
A scanning sensor will conduct sweeps for information on missile launches, while a staring sensor will analyze a fixed location, Smith explained.
The scanning sensor likely would pick up threat information first due to its wider range but the staring sensor could provide more detailed information on a threat
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/05/05/air-force-launch-star-wars-style-missile-defense/
reuters 2011/05/07 usa-military-satellite
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/launches+billion+missile+defence+satellite/4746975/story.html
http://www.itwire.com/science-news/space/46993-us-missile-defense-geo-1-launched-into-space
By William Atkins
Monday, 09 May 2011 00:22
____________________________________
p.40
Air Force innovation
estimates of the outcome of development projects
Cost increases on the order of 20 to 30 percent and extension of development time by 1/3 to 1/2 are not the exception, but the rule
due to technological uncertainty and advances.128
source:
John Schutte, ‘Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War’, 2015, http://www.au.af.mil/au/aupress/digital/pdf/paper/dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf
dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf
Schutte, John M., 1976
Casting net assessment : Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war / John M. Schutte, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF.
1. Marshall, Andrew W., 1921─ 2. United States. department of defense. director of net assessment ── biography. 3. united states. department of defense ── officials and employees ── biography. 4. rand corporation ── biography. 5. united states ── forecasting. 6. military planning ── united states ── history ── 20th century. 7. military planning ── united states ── history ── 21st century. 8. united states ── military policy. 9. strategy. 10. cold war.
title: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war.
UA23.6.S43 2014
355.0092 -- dc23
____________________________________
• Babbage's statement: “It has been estimated, roughly, that the first individual of a newly invented machine will cost about five times as much as the construction of the second.”
Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982
p.107
The possible wisdom of waiting is reinforced by observations, abundantly available to all would-be entrepreneurs, concerning the sad financial fate of innumerable earlier entrepreneurs who ended up in the bankruptcy courts because of their premature entrepreneurial activities.5
p.107
5 Marx long ago called attention to “the far greater cost of operating an establishment based on a new invention as compared to later establishments arising ex suis ossibus. This is so very true that the trail-blazers generally go bankrupt, and only those who later buy the buildings, machinery, etc., at a cheaper price, make money out of it” (Karl Marx, Capital [Foreign languages publishing house, moscow, 1959], vol. III, p. 103).
He also called attention to the rapid improvements in the productivity of machinery in its early stages as well as the sharp reduction in the cost of its production.
“When machine is first introduced into an industry, new methods of reproducing it more cheaply follow blow by blow, and so do improvements, that not only affect individual parts and details on the machine, but its entire build” (Karl Marx, Capital [Modern library edition, new york, no date], vol. I, p. 442).
In a footnote on that page, Marx cites approvingly Babbage's statement: “It has been estimated, roughly, that the first individual of a newly invented machine will cost about five times as much as the construction of the second.”
For discussion of related problems with respect to the growth of nations, see Ed Ames and Nathan Rosenberg, “Changing technological leadership and economic growth”, Economic journal, march 1963.
(Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673 1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )
Theodore Rockwell., The rickover efffect : how one man made a difference / 1992,
____________________________________
Theodore Rockwell., The rickover efffect : how one man made a difference / 1992,
p.339
• “When you've done 90 percent of the work on a project, you'd better have 50 percent of the money left in the budget.”, Theodore Rockwell., The rickover efffect : how one man made a difference (1992), p.339 [field / discipline: atomic power plant research & development, engineering & testing]
• “that final 10 per cent striving ... costs 40 per cent of the total expenditure on most projects.”, Ben R. Rich and Leo Janos., Skunk works: a personal memoir of my years at Lockheed, 1994, p.325 [field / discipline: aircraft development]
• “Avionics is the killer expense, costing about $7000 [1994 dollar?] a pound in a new airplane.”, Ben R. Rich and Leo Janos., Skunk works: a personal memoir of my years at Lockheed, 1994, p.322 [field / discipline: aircraft development]
(The rickover efffect : how one man made a difference / Theodore Rockwell., 1. rickover, hyman george., 2. nuclear submarines ── united states ── history.
3. admirals ── united states ── biography., 4. united states., navy──biography, V63.R54R63 1992, 359.3'2574'092--dc20, united states naval institute, Annapolis, Maryland, 1992 )
____________________________________
Ben R. Rich and Leo Janos., Skunk works: a personal memoir of my years at Lockheed, 1994
p.321
development costs of fighters
unit procurement costs have risen 11 per cent every year since 1963!
p.325
that final 10 per cent striving ... costs 40 per cent of the total expenditure on most projects.
([ the first 90 per cent of the work ... costs 60 per cent of the total expenditure ])
(Skunk works: a personal memoir of my years at Lockheed / Ben R. Rich and Leo Janos., 1. lockheed advanced development company ─ history., 2. rich, ben r. ─ career in aeronautics., 3. aeronautics ─ research ─ united states ─ history.,
TL.565.R53 1994, 338.7'623746'0973, 338.7623 rich, 1994, )
____________________________________
Ben R. Rich and Leo Janos., Skunk works: a personal memoir of my years at Lockheed, 1994
pp.40-41
Have Blue
“top secret - special access required”
“the security they're sticking onto this thing will kill you. It will increase your costs 25 per cent and lower your efficiency to the point where you won't get any work done. The restriction will eat you alive. Make them reclassify this thing or drop it.”
On matters like that, Kelly was seldom wrong.
p.333
A classified program increases a manufacturer's costs up to 25 percent.
(Skunk works: a personal memoir of my years at Lockheed / Ben R. Rich and Leo Janos., 1. lockheed advanced development company ─ history., 2. rich, ben r. ─ career in aeronautics., 3. aeronautics ─ research ─ united states ─ history.,
TL.565.R53 1994, 338.7'623746'0973, 338.7623 rich, 1994, )
____________________________________
worst-case estimate ─ 4x available cost estimation [4xace]
Angler: the Cheney vice presidency, Barton Gellman, 2008
pp.265-266 a piece of truth
War with Iraq would cost 1 to 2 percent of the gross domestic product.
[ the administration lowball the war cost to help for an easier sell ]
Lawrence Lindsay
4 to 8 percent of GDP
As Bush and Cheney prepared to leave office, the war's financial toll quadrupled [Lawrence] Lidsay's worst-case estimate.
p.138 Jack Goldsmith
he [Cheney] has never hidden the ball.
The amazing thing is that he does what he says.
It was impressive, even if it was bizarro.
It was a will to power.”
(Angler: the Cheney vice presidency, Barton Gellman, 2008, )
____________________________________
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