── the realization that the lead-time for affecting the solution of the major problems facing the country was far longer than the time when the problem needed to be solved.
── Were we moving into another ice age or will carbon dioxide buildup lead to global warning?
── what might we do that would be economically feasible today to deal with these problems tomorrow?
── We lacked the tools to even talk intelligently about these longer term issues.
── “Could we do a better job of very long range forecasting?”
── a study of the future of the telephone company sponsored by AT&T for the period 1970 to 1985 AT&T’ cooperation with the study was excellent and the study turned out to be surprisingly accurate fifteen years later , suggesting that that it really is possible to use very long range planning.
── One of the early ideas of the Institute was to maintain quality control of forecasts.
── The major value of a study is to be able to go back to find out what worked and what didn’t.
── show you what a 32-year-old forecast looks like in retrospect.
── Thirty-two years ago I forecast that we would be shopping via a TV screen to a virtual department store. I described a number pad used to enter multilevel choices. For example in this paper the hypothetical buyer interested in buying a power drill might enter the virtual store comprising a set of departments. The user would first select the hardware department, which would be seen on the screen. Then, the user would select power tools, and those items would appear on the screen. Next, if the user selected power drills, they would be displayed with their description including price. Assuming that the user was still interested he or she might also select Consumer’s Union to look at the rating of competing tools.
── What is described is very much like Web TV.
── https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streaming_television
──
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PAUL BARAN: An Interview Conducted by David Hochfelder, IEEE History Center, 24 October 1999
Interview #378 for the IEEE History Center, The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
Institute For the Future, 1967+
Baran:
A number of us at RAND were struck by the realization that the lead-time for affecting the solution of the major problems facing the country was far longer than the time when the problem needed to be solved. For examples there were major questions just beginning to be raised about global change. Were we moving into another ice age or will carbon dioxide buildup lead to global warning? And, what might we do that would be economically feasible today to deal with these problems tomorrow? We lacked the tools to even talk intelligently about these longer term issues. “Could we do a better job of very long range forecasting?” Long range forecasting has historically been the domain of the soothsayer, and entrails reader, a highly disrespectable business at best. There were fewer fields of lower repute.
Our objective was to start by considering the basic process and methodology of longer range forecasting. We sought to consider likely futures, more realistically, and earlier in time. We obtained a small grant from the Ford Foundation to think about these issues. We soon became concerned about doing this work at RAND as RAND had a great reputation guarded by a powerfully effective review mechanism. What we planned to do could easily come to nothing. We didn’t know what would work and what wouldn’t work. In the interest of prudence, we chose to create an entirely new not for profit organization not in any way connected to RAND so that if the project was a failure, (and the probability of this being high), the venture could be quietly buried without leaving a negative mark on RAND’s reputation.
Hochfelder:
Right.
Baran:
We then set up the Institute for the Future, initially at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut with a few people from RAND, and from other places as well. Its initial President was Frank Davidson, a lawyer whose main interest was forming a consortium to build a tunnel under the English Channel. (As we know he finally did it, decades later.) He maintained an office in New York. And, we had a Vice President, Arnold Kramisch a former RAND physicist who kept an office in Washington. Lacking credibility we first gathered a distinguished Board of Trustees to provide enough instant respectability to allow us to be eligible for foundation, government and business support.
I initially wore two hats there, as a Senior Fellow doing research and as Treasurer as I was suspected of being the only one in the group who had balanced their checkbook. The organization groped to find out what worked and what didn’t with regard to very long range forecasting. The plan was to conduct studies for government, for industry and for foundations and then going back years later to see which tools worked and which did not to establish effectiveness.
One study that I did together with Andrew Lipinski, formerly at SRI, was a study of the future of the telephone company sponsored by AT&T for the period 1970 to 1985 AT&T’ cooperation with the study was excellent and the study turned out to be surprisingly accurate fifteen years later , suggesting that that it really is possible to use very long range planning.
The reader might be interested in why AT&T would ever allow me work on a study on their future after being at such odds with them five years earlier. Although I strongly disagreed with AT&T with regard to packet switching, in all our discussions, we wre able to maintaine a civil discourse and remained friends with many key people there in spite of our major disagreements.
After the Institute was set up in Connecticut I felt that I had accomplished my objective and wished to return to California. Since the AT&T study was not complete I planned to finish it in California and to do so I opened a small office in Menlo Park. Thirty-two years later, the Institute for the Future continues operation on Sand Hill Rd. in Menlo Park.
Forecasting Quality Control,1967+
Baran:
One of the early ideas of the Institute was to maintain quality control of forecasts. The major value of a study is to be able to go back to find out what worked and what didn’t. My first attempt as a forecasting paper for this purpose was written in late 1967, shortly before starting the Institute for the Future in 1968. I sent you (Hochfelder) a copy partially for your amusement and partially to show you what a 32-year-old forecast looks like in retrospect. This paper was presented at the 1967 Annual Meeting of the American Marketing Association, and is entitled, Marketing in the Year 2000.
Thirty-two years ago I forecast that we would be shopping via a TV screen to a virtual department store. I described a number pad used to enter multilevel choices. For example in this paper the hypothetical buyer interested in buying a power drill might enter the virtual store comprising a set of departments. The user would first select the hardware department, which would be seen on the screen. Then, the user would select power tools, and those items would appear on the screen. Next, if the user selected power drills, they would be displayed with their description including price. Assuming that the user was still interested he or she might also select Consumer’s Union to look at the rating of competing tools.
The paper went into the issue of “push” vs. “pull” selection and forecasts the technology allowing the world to move toward the “pull” selection process. What is described is very much like Web TV.
Hochfelder:
It’s pretty accurate.
Baran:
Frankly, I too was surprised when I dusted off this old paper to review its predictive accuracy as the Year 2000 would be coming up shortly. I mention this third of a Century old forecast for two reasons. The first is that it suggests that we can do a better job of long range forecasting than we realize. And, secondly that at least some of the applications appearing on today’s Internet were not completely anticipated.
I tapered out of the Institute for the Future over a few year period, doing a little consulting on and off. One task was a “D-Net.” Much of the work that the Institute was doing at that time was based on pencil and paper Delphi studies, invented by Drs. Olaf Helmer and Norm Dalkey of RAND. This is a parallel process in which iterative questioners are sent to experts and the feedback used to focus on areas of disagreement. Helmer’s idea was to try to automate this process on line. The conferencing software that existed at the time was a serial process as is Roberts Rules of Order. What was wanted was a parallel approach, including voice conferencing. The original software was done by Richard Miller and Dr. Hubert Lipinski. Later the work was extended by Dr. Jacques Vallee. The next generation was spun out by Heubert Lipinski as a commercial product which was later sold to Lotus and became Lotus Notes.
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